Why Boris Johnson faces five key Brexit questions

Why Boris Johnson faces five key Brexit questions


Boris Johnson’s new
government is going hell for leather for
a no-deal Brexit. The new British prime
minister has entered office saying he will only talk about
a new Brexit deal with the EU if it doesn’t include that
troublesome Irish border backstop. The EU says they’re
not interested. So Mr Johnson, instead,
is ramping up preparations to leave on October
the 31 without a deal. But many MPs in parliament
aren’t happy with this and are trying to challenge
Mr Johnson’s new policy. But there are so
many questions about whether they have to
bring down his government, whether they can force his
hand and, most importantly, whether they have the power
to stop a no-deal Brexit. The main supporting
MPs in parliament are becoming increasingly
convinced the only way to stop a no-deal
Brexit is to bring down Mr Johnson’s government. Mr Johnson only has a working
majority in parliament of one. And the numbers for
winning a confidence vote when parliament
returns in September are very tight indeed. So whether he can
win that vote or not is going to be very uncertain. And if he loses that
vote, then there’s not much time left
before Britain will head to a general election. Britain has an
unwritten constitution. And there’s lots
of conventions that say what the prime minister
should do, not what he must do. Normally, if Mr Johnson
lost a confidence vote then he would quit and make
way for someone else. But people close to
the prime minister say he won’t do that at all. He’s not interested in what
parliament or MPs think. Instead, he’s only focused
on delivering Brexit by October the 31st. In his own words – come
what may, do or die. So if he does lose
that confidence vote, he won’t be going anywhere. If Mr Johnson loses that
confidence vote in September, there’s a 14-day period which
would allow another government to step in its place. If nothing happens in
that time, then it’s back over to the prime
minister to decide when an election is held. It must be called
within 25 days. But Boris Johnson
doesn’t want an election to happen until the
UK has left the EU, knowing that his
Conservative party would be under threat from Nigel
Farage’s Brexit party. So you could imagine Mr Johnson
pushing the date back as far as possible until after October the
31st, when the UK automatically has left the EU. If the general election
is held after the UK has left the EU without
a deal, then it all comes down to how disruptive
a no-deal Brexit is. Mr Johnson would be betting
that the disruption could be contained, and he would
pitch an election as parliament versus the people. The people who voted Leave
in the 2016 referendum, and parliament, the MPs
who are trying to stop him from fulfilling that. The Liberal Democrats,
on the other hand, would run on a strongly
pro-Remain platform, even offer to rejoin the EU to avoid
the impact of a no-deal Brexit. And the Labour party? Well, they would try to
fight on domestic issues because Brexit is a very
complicated matter for them because they don’t want
to lose the portion of their Leave voters in the
north and their Remain voters in the cities. So if we have that
election the pollsters say it would be inconclusive. Nobody really knows who
will be able to form a government after that poll. When the UK triggered
Article 50 back in March 2017 it started a countdown clock
until the UK leaves the EU. The only way to
stop that clock is to delay or revoke Article 50. The former prime
minister Theresa May deleted Article 50 twice. But Mr Johnson has no
intention of doing that. He also has no intention
of invoking Article 50. So in this instance, unless
another prime minister steps into his
place, then the UK will be leaving at the end of
October, regardless of what MPs want to do about that.

53 thoughts on “Why Boris Johnson faces five key Brexit questions

  1. Boris only faces one question…do i respect the Will of the British People and LEAVE with NO DEAL or do i disregard Democracy and fail the People?…we must LEAVE by Halloween for sake of Democratic Britain!!!

  2. A good quote and a useful benchmark is the following: “As we transition into a parallel universe of a Johnson government running purely on the fumes of propaganda, watch the pound. It will be your lie detector test.”

  3. Boris just needs to respect the referendum and not listen to the grovelling remoaners who feel the need to be ruled by Germany.

  4. What do you expect from clowns? But what is if these clowns start a NO-Deal-Brexit – whatever the costs may be?

    Boris has already announced to start his Halloween-Boris -Brexit. The tragedy for Britain. If you lose your money and your job then you should ask the clowns – maybe they can help?

  5. Poor Boris. Once lording it around on his brexit bus is now going to be made to look a stupid twat. Still, he's used to it. Water off a ducks.

  6. These University educated lads seem to have all the questions and answers.The ship Brittany is in trouble and it is healing over taking water.Never mind the Yankee doodles will come to the rescue by Captain Trump..Do you take Loyds they ask? Because if we save you it will come at a price.Raab the Brittany's mate keeps grinning through gritted teeth and talks to engineer Gowe who is lost amongst the prop shaft trying to stop water entering the sinking ship.We are shafted Gowe shouts to Captain Boris who is combing his hair.

  7. Boris Johnson will use all his great political wherewithal to force a no deal Brexit to make his mark and prove to this generation what the results of voting for the conservative party really means to the people of Britain

  8. Johnson has to resign after losing a vote of no confidence he cannot defy the will of the house. If he stays he will curbed by the speaker Bercow and MPs will control the business of the house. Johnson will disgrace himself if he refuses to go.

  9. There are only two questions. 1)When must I advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament for 20 working days, the maximum allowed by law? And 2) When Parliament returns at the end of the 20 days and when I lose the no-confidence vote and then 14 calendar days later I lose the confirming vote, should I advise the Queen to dissolve Parliament immediately by setting the date for the general election 25 days after the fall of the government? The election would take place in November after the UK exits the EU.
    That would leave less than 14 days for rebel MPs and opposition parties to attempt to prevent a statute passed by Parliament from coming into force on the date set by law, the EU Withdrawal Act 2018.
    Justifiable? Yes, because Parliament has had ample time to repeal or amend the EU Withdrawal Act and has not done so. There is no provision in UK law or Constitution that allows a Prime Minister to ignore a statute passed by Parliament.

  10. remoners are bad losers, and they do not understand democracy, Brexit will be good for the uk in the long run !

  11. The single most important question is how to force the Remainer Parliament to obey the will of the electorate, without a bloody revolution.

  12. A coup on the way? When we're out.. We can save the country from people trafficking and the misery caused… Yippee.

  13. This journalist is the most English person I have ever seen. Lol. Look at his flared nostrils, beady eyes and horse teeth. Very Richard Branson-esque.

  14. If the Supreme Court is allowed to pass a fair, impartial & timely judgment on Robin Tilbrook’s & the English Democrat’s Court Case & Appeal, then it will almost certainly determine & confirm that the UK 🇬🇧 had in fact already legally departed the EU on the 29/Mar/2019, as originally scheduled!! Why is justice being delayed & thus denied here??….

  15. Boris the buffoon Johnson and the right wing conservative perverts are a bunch of institutionally racist homophobic islamophobes who prey on the weak and disabled and this bell end sounds and looks like a pleb dork NO OFFENCE

  16. Just wanted to take a second to thank average housewife Gina Miller. Without her interference we would never have had the effective vito of the DUP and ERG.
    Gina gave us Boris and no deal. Pat yourselves on the back Remainiacs.

  17. Remoaners have tried every trick in the book to stop Brexit and to think they can stop it before October 31st is a fantasy.

  18. The convention in losing a vote of no confidence (not brought under the FTPA 2011 is as follows…

    if the House were to express no confidence in the Government [other than through a motion passed under the FTPA], unless that authority could be restored, the Prime Minister would be expected to give notice that he or she will resign, but only when he or she is in a position to recommend to the Sovereign an alternative person to form a new administration. In the event that no alternative person can be found, it remains available to the House to bring about an early general election under section 2(1) of the Act.

    So your statement that he "would quit and make way for someone else" is a misrepresentation. This has NEVER been the convention and I'm sure you are aware of this.

    https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2018/12/11/confidence-motions-and-the-fixed-term-parliaments-act-2011/

  19. Also, your analysis is very confused. A confidence vote does not have to be brought under the FTPA 2011 and if that is the case, there is no 14 day period, that is a term of the FTPA 2011. The FTPA 2011 is concerned with calling an early General Election a motion of no confidence not relying on the FTPA 2011 would be used to change the Government.

    https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2018/12/11/confidence-motions-and-the-fixed-term-parliaments-act-2011/

  20. Another false statement in your video is "it must be held withing 25 days", not true. 25 days are the MINIMUM required before a General Election. The date of the election is at the discretion of the PM…

    The FTPA 2011 Section 2 Subsection 7…

    (7)If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister (and, accordingly, the appointed day replaces the day which would otherwise have been the polling day for the next election determined under section 1).

    Boris Johnson is perfectly able to set the election date after the 31st October 2019.

  21. Regarding the 25 days…

    Under the FTPA 2011 Parliament is now dissolved automatically 25 working days before a general election.

    The date of the election is for the PM to decide.

    It's not "within 25 days".

  22. Boris Trump will make Britain grate again! – bulldogs with Union Jack collars patrolling the white cliffs of Dover. He'll prorogue parliament. Keep the bastards out………..

  23. "The LibDems would run on a REMAIN platform after the 31st October 2019"

    Go on. How does that work?

    They would obviously run a RE-JOIN campaign.

    Article 50 is EU law, once we've left, we have to apply to re-join and that probably means accepting the Euro, Federalist ideals, refugee sharing, support for an EU armed force instead of NATO, loss of the rebate, acceptance of free movement, larger membership fees due to increased expenditure.

  24. The deal could be a fairly simple trade deal. The EU tariff on most products now averages 3%. The UK is proposing to increase zero tariffs from 80% to 87% on all goods. For both sides the automobile industry, agricultural products and financial services are the most important sectors to negotiate. EU tariffs on automobiles average 10%. Agricultural products much higher. The UK will have a surplus of agricultural product no matter what happens and should release more land for housing.

  25. The reality is that establishment publication the FT has run the propaganda course and the public are no longer listening. The Remoaners had every forecast and projection wrong, they so called experts got everything so wrong, nobody believes a word they say, and who can blame them.
    The UK leaves the EU in October, prepare for it, or face the consequences retards.

  26. EU must not offer UK any deal. UK must exit EU without a deal. No feal is best for EU interest after brexit otherwise UK will become a nuisance if offered any deal.

  27. Seb is a transgender right? I've been listening to 'him' for a few years now, first at the Specky and now the FT Politics podcasts, but this is my first sight of the 'man', and errr, what a man! 

    That 'beard' is straight out of the Beavis and Butthead episode of the same name, and like our favourite retards, this one looks like it's stuck on with glue. Those 80's style glasses are a disaster, merely serving to accentuate his Basking Shark-like mouth, and the although the petrol blue jacket is a nice touch, the hair style is again a reminder that you're dealing with someone that spends way too much time within the M25, and with people he's either sucking-off, of who are sucking him off.

    I live in SE Asia, but was back in London for the Brexit count. Never have my prejudices been more thoroughly confirmed. I spent a very pleasurable Friday evening at the Grey Horse in Marylebone, watching the media darlings quite literally cry into their beers. I'll never forget the sight. Truly pathetic, from a class that desperately clings to power but with an ever dwindling authority to do so.

  28. Looks like I'll have to give skeggi a chance 👍👍I'm sure it'll be fabulous nice friendly people gorgeous beaches snorkeling clear blue sea, different food can't wait!!! I LOVE BEING BRITISH IT'S FABAROOONI!!! 👍👍

  29. The 'deal' is only an agreement that the UK will:
    Pay the EU £39+ billion,
    Remain in the Single Market,
    Prevent a hard boarder with Northern Ireland,
    Remain under EU law,
    The EU will make decisions on behalf of the UK,
    And, that at sometime in the future the EU and the UK will have trade talks.

    Really we can do without a 'deal'

  30. Can the no deal brexiteers tell me how long after the UK leaves on October 31 will contact the EU about settling a trade deal?How will you deal with the financial settlement, Irish border etc at that stage. Remember now you will have gone from trading with the EU on best possible terms to bottom of the barrel WTO terms. Please show your work.

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