How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg


Economists have been exploring
people’s behavior for hundreds of years: how we make decisions, how we act individually and in groups, how we exchange value. They’ve studied the institutions
that facilitate our trade, like legal systems, corporations, marketplaces. But there is a new,
technological institution that will fundamentally change
how we exchange value, and it’s called the blockchain. Now, that’s a pretty bold statement, but if you take nothing else
away from this talk, I actually want you to remember that while blockchain technology
is relatively new, it’s also a continuation
of a very human story, and the story is this. As humans, we find ways to lower uncertainty about one another so that we can exchange value. Now, one of the first people
to really explore the idea of institutions as a tool in economics to lower our uncertainties
about one another and be able to do trade was the Nobel economist Douglass North. He passed away at the end of 2015, but North pioneered what’s called
“new institutional economics.” And what he meant by institutions
were really just formal rules like a constitution, and informal constraints, like bribery. These institutions are really the grease that allow our economic
wheels to function, and we can see this play out
over the course of human history. If we think back to when we were
hunter-gatherer economies, we really just traded
within our village structure. We had some informal constraints in place, but we enforced
all of our trade with violence or social repercussions. As our societies grew more complex and our trade routes grew more distant, we built up more formal institutions, institutions like banks for currency, governments, corporations. These institutions
helped us manage our trade as the uncertainty
and the complexity grew, and our personal control was much lower. Eventually with the internet,
we put these same institutions online. We built platform marketplaces
like Amazon, eBay, Alibaba, just faster institutions
that act as middlemen to facilitate human economic activity. As Douglass North saw it, institutions are a tool
to lower uncertainty so that we can connect and exchange
all kinds of value in society. And I believe we are now entering a further and radical evolution of how we interact and trade, because for the first time,
we can lower uncertainty not just with political
and economic institutions, like our banks, our corporations,
our governments, but we can do it with technology alone. So what is the blockchain? Blockchain technology
is a decentralized database that stores a registry
of assets and transactions across a peer-to-peer network. It’s basically a public registry of who owns what and who transacts what. The transactions are secured
through cryptography, and over time, that transaction history
gets locked in blocks of data that are then cryptographically
linked together and secured. This creates an immutable,
unforgeable record of all of the transactions
across this network. This record is replicated
on every computer that uses the network. It’s not an app. It’s not a company. I think it’s closest in description
to something like Wikipedia. We can see everything on Wikipedia. It’s a composite view that’s constantly
changing and being updated. We can also track those changes
over time on Wikipedia, and we can create our own wikis, because at their core,
they’re just a data infrastructure. On Wikipedia, it’s an open platform
that stores words and images and the changes to that data over time. On the blockchain, you can think of it
as an open infrastructure that stores many kinds of assets. It stores the history of custodianship, ownership and location for assets like
the digital currency Bitcoin, other digital assets like a title of ownership of IP. It could be a certificate, a contract, real world objects, even personal identifiable information. There are of course other
technical details to the blockchain, but at its core, that’s how it works. It’s this public registry
that stores transactions in a network and is replicated so that it’s very secure
and hard to tamper with. Which brings me to my point of how blockchains lower uncertainty and how they therefore promise
to transform our economic systems in radical ways. So uncertainty is kind of a big term in economics, but I want to go through three forms of it that we face in almost all
of our everyday transactions, where blockchains can play a role. We face uncertainties
like not knowing who we’re dealing with, not having visibility into a transaction and not having recourse
if things go wrong. So let’s take the first example,
not knowing who we’re dealing with. Say I want to buy
a used smartphone on eBay. The first thing I’m going to do
is look up who I’m buying from. Are they a power user? Do they have great reviews and ratings,
or do they have no profile at all? Reviews, ratings, checkmarks: these are the attestations
about our identities that we cobble together today and use to lower uncertainty
about who we’re dealing with. But the problem is
they’re very fragmented. Think about how many profiles you have. Blockchains allow for us
to create an open, global platform on which to store any attestation
about any individual from any source. This allows us to create a user-controlled portable identity. More than a profile, it means you can selectively reveal the different attributes about you that help facilitate trade or interaction, for instance that a government
issued you an ID, or that you’re over 21, by revealing the cryptographic proof that these details exist
and are signed off on. Having this kind of portable identity around the physical world
and the digital world means we can do all kinds of human trade in a totally new way. So I’ve talked about how blockchains
could lower uncertainty in who we’re dealing with. The second uncertainty that we often face is just not having transparency
into our interactions. Say you’re going to send me
that smartphone by mail. I want some degree of transparency. I want to know that the product I bought
is the same one that arrives in the mail and that there’s some record
for how it got to me. This is true not just
for electronics like smartphones, but for many kinds of goods and data, things like medicine, luxury goods, any kind of data or product
that we don’t want tampered with. The problem in many companies, especially those that produce
something complicated like a smartphone, is they’re managing
all of these different vendors across a horizontal supply chain. All of these people
that go into making a product, they don’t have the same database. They don’t use the same infrastructure, and so it becomes really hard to see
transparently a product evolve over time. Using the blockchain, we can create a shared reality
across nontrusting entities. By this I mean all of these nodes in the network
do not need to know each other or trust each other, because they each have the ability to monitor and validate
the chain for themselves. Think back to Wikipedia. It’s a shared database, and even though it has multiple readers and multiple writers at the same time, it has one single truth. So we can create that using blockchains. We can create a decentralized database
that has the same efficiency of a monopoly without actually creating
that central authority. So all of these vendors,
all sorts of companies, can interact using the same database
without trusting one another. It means for consumers,
we can have a lot more transparency. As a real-world object travels along, we can see its digital certificate
or token move on the blockchain, adding value as it goes. This is a whole new world
in terms of our visibility. So I’ve talked about how blockchains
can lower our uncertainties about identity and how they change
what we mean about transparency in long distances and complex trades,
like in a supply chain. The last uncertainty that we often face is one of the most open-ended,
and it’s reneging. What if you don’t send me the smartphone? Can I get my money back? Blockchains allow us to write code, binding contracts, between individuals and then guarantee
that those contracts will bear out without a third party enforcer. So if we look at the smartphone example,
you could think about escrow. You are financing that phone, but you don’t need to release the funds until you can verify
that all the conditions have been met. You got the phone. I think this is one
of the most exciting ways that blockchains lower our uncertainties, because it means to some degree we can collapse institutions
and their enforcement. It means a lot of human economic activity can get collateralized and automated, and push a lot of human
intervention to the edges, the places where information moves
from the real world to the blockchain. I think what would probably
floor Douglass North about this use of technology is the fact that the very thing
that makes it work, the very thing that keeps the blockchain
secure and verified, is our mutual distrust. So rather than all of our uncertainties slowing us down and requiring institutions like banks, our governments,
our corporations, we can actually harness
all of that collective uncertainty and use it to collaborate and exchange
more and faster and more open. Now, I don’t want you
to get the impression that the blockchain
is the solution to everything, even though the media has said
that it’s going to end world poverty, it’s also going to solve
the counterfeit drug problem and potentially save the rainforest. The truth is, this technology
is in its infancy, and we’re going to need to see
a lot of experiments take place and probably fail before we truly understand
all of the use cases for our economy. But there are tons of people
working on this, from financial institutions to technology companies,
start-ups and universities. And one of the reasons is
that it’s not just an economic evolution. It’s also an innovation
in computer science. Blockchains give us
the technological capability of creating a record of human exchange, of exchange of currency, of all kinds of digital
and physical assets, even of our own personal attributes, in a totally new way. So in some ways, they become a technological institution that has a lot of the benefits of the traditional institutions
we’re used to using in society, but it does this in a decentralized way. It does this by converting
a lot of our uncertainties into certainties. So I think we need to start
preparing ourselves, because we are about to face a world where distributed, autonomous institutions have quite a significant role. Thank you. (Applause) Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Bettina. I think I understood that it’s coming, it offers a lot of potential, and it’s complex. What is your estimate
for the rate of adoption? Bettina Warburg: I think
that’s a really good question. My lab is pretty much focused on going the enterprise
and government route first, because in reality,
blockchain is a complex technology. How many of you actually understand
how the internet works? But you use it every day, so I think we’re sort of facing
the same John Sculley idea of technology should either be
invisible or beautiful, and blockchain is kind of
neither of those things right now, so it’s better suited
for either really early adopters who kind of get it and can tinker around or for finding those best use cases like identity or asset tracking
or smart contracts that can be used at that level
of an enterprise or government. BG: Thank you. Thanks for coming to TED. BW: Thanks. (Applause)

100 thoughts on “How the blockchain will radically transform the economy | Bettina Warburg

  1. Let’s get this straight: in order for Bitcoin to be a real currency, it needs several things:
    easy and frictionless trading between people
    to be widely accepted as legal tender for all debts, public and private
    a stable value that does not fluctuate (otherwise it’s impossible to set prices)
    Bitcoin has none of these things, and even safely storing it is difficult (see Mt. Gox, Bitfinex, and the various wallets and exchanges that have been hacked)
    And the elephant in the room is. including the permanent ledger recording all transactions. Send me your BTC address and I am available to see your history and how full is your wallet on BTC. That really sucks.
    Not to mention that I have to wait 30 minutes to be able to pay for a coffee.
    Even with the Lightning Network in place by 2020. It won’t help to make it faster. Sorry but BTC it is old tech

  2. Mathematical Proof That the Lightning Network Cannot Be a Decentralized Bitcoin Scaling Solution
    Have you heard of the Bitcoin Lightning Network? It is a proposal that claims that:
    “using a network of these micropayment channels, Bitcoin can scale to billions of transactions per day”
    What it doesn’t tell you is that this can only be accomplished by using large, centralized “banking” hubs.
    https://medium.com/@jonaldfyookball/mathematical-proof-that-the-lightning-network-cannot-be-a-decentralized-bitcoin-scaling-solution-1b8147650800

  3. bitcoin does have a 21-million-coin cap, but this is only limited by protocols. Admittedly, getting consensus on bitcoin's network to increase the coin limit would be very difficult — but the point is that it's not impossible. Computer coders with the backing of the bitcoin community could do just that and create more bitcoin.
    To add to this point, even without increasing the coin limit above 21 million, bitcoin's numerous hard forks essentially violate the idea of a token limit and scarcity. Bitcoin has had three instances since August where a disagreement between developers on the future path of bitcoin and its blockchain resulted in the creation of a new currency. These spinoffs of sorts — Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, and Bitcoin Private — topple the idea of true scarcity, as new coins have been, or could continue to be, created from bitcoin.

  4. BTC is perfect for the system. They love it. The fact that every single transaction is compiled, cataloged and tracked in the blockchain "ledger.
    It is perfect for the establishment.
    On top of this, nearly all major international banks are ingraining blockchain tech and BTC, plus other cryptocurrencies into their business models, including globalist foundation banks like Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs LOVES blockchain technology; they even refer to it as the "new technology of trust." Just take a look at their rave reviews on how it will change the world.
    They trick the liberty movement into helping them while letting us think we are poking them in the eye.
    advancement of cryptocurrencies into mainstream consciousness has been helped expertly by the corporate media, which frankly, does not make sense if they are a real threat to the central banking monolith. As they say, when the real revolution happens, it will not be televised. Bitcoin is televised everywhere.

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  6. I am a bit confused.. So in the case of the smartphone at 10:15, where the money are escrowed in order to ensure that the seller ships the agreed item, how do a blockchain structure avoid that the buyer simply disputes the transaction despite receiving the agreed item? The way i understand this structure, the buyer will then have the opportunistic possibility to receive the agreed item as well as the escrowed money back.
    Any clarifications are truly appreciated 🙂

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  8. While it may be true that distributed ledger technologies (such as blockchain) can offer tremendous value and advantages to the networks that effectively employ them, it absolutely matters how those technologies are designed, the conditions they are released under, and who owns the data that these networks create. So far only one organization I know has anything approaching a plan for this reality: https://plan-systems.org

  9. Bitcoin’s success has triggered the establishment of nearly 1000 new cryptocurrencies, leading to the delusion that the only application of blockchain technology is for the creation of cryptocurrency. However, the blockchain technology is capable of a lot more than just cryptocurrency creation. Here's some article about blockchain, explained straight forwardly https://pay.g2a.com/blog/blockchain-technology-will-change-ecommerce/

  10. Just read this amazing news on The Crypto Sight – Colorado Proposes Blockchain Study in Agriculture, read more at https://thecryptosight.com/colorado-proposes-blockchain-study-in-agriculture/

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  12. I rather have gold or silver in my hand. Blockchain was created by the government ,its another trap.. ,people!!

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  14. Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin with the motivation to solve the problems of centralized payment systems so it seems inconsistent that centralized Bitcoin exchanges are still the primary way to acquire bitcoins. In our opinion the dominance and vulnerability of centralized exchanges is the Achilles heel in the current Bitcoin ecosystem.

    The power of decentralized cryptocurrencies comes when they are used the same way they are designed. Any change to a decentralized digital currency’s environment will ultimately damage its progress. Just like a plant requires the correct minerals, sunlight and care, decentralized cryptocurrencies too need the right environment to thrive.
    So far most of the damage caused to cryptocurrencies has been inflicted by third-party operators, human errors – the same issues which Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were supposed to remove. Until recently, choices for the average user lacking the knowledge to easily take part was limited. Hopefully with the introduction of easy to use decentralized systems and an increase in available options, people will start to move away from centralized solutions and use cryptocurrencies as they were intended.

  15. Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, wanted it to be resistant to control by tyrannical governments and banks. Payment records are therefore not held centrally, but broadcast to all users. A new batch of Bitcoin is issued every ten minutes on average. That limits the network to processing about seven transactions per second (Visa, by contrast, can handle tens of thousands per second). In 2017, as the crypto-bubble was inflating, the system became clogged. To ensure that transactions went through, users had to pay miners—at one point, as much as $50 per transaction.

  16. Proof of work is profoundly destructive and entirely unnecessary in the face of perfectly green consensus technologies. The embrace Ethereum, Bitcoin narrative needs to change.
    BTC holders. ETH holders.
    December
    2017 PoW failed. BTC confirmation time 24-88 (peak) hours
    That same month, ONE app congested the entire ETH network to the point the "foundation" had to raise fees. One. Single. App. Both are doomed to fail.

    https://cointelegraph.com/news/expert-renewable-energy-not-enough-for-bitcoins-sustainability-problem

    https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

  17. what convinced me of bitcoin not being the panacea maxis claim is their deliberate ignorance on how the venezuelan government used it to persecute dissidents by simply looking at the energy footprint of pow (Proof of Work)

  18. Elon Musk, has gone public with his belief that cryptocurrency offers an improved alternative to conventional money.
    Go to minute 25:35 Elon start talking about Crypto. He said.
    “It [cryptocurrency] bypasses currency controls. … Paper money is going away. And crypto is a far better way to transfer values than a piece of paper, that’s for sure.”
    cryptocurrency, in the case of bitcoin for instance, he said he believes its use of a large computing network to secure its ledger is “computationally energy intensive.” He added that, for a company that aims to boost the adoption for sustainable energy, it may not be “a good use of Tesla’s resources to get involved in crypto.”
    “It’s very energy intensive to create bitcoin at this point,” he said.
    https://ark-invest.com/podcast-download/59865/elon-musk-podcast.mp3?ref=download

  19. A shift away from cash would also make it easier for governments to collect taxes and enact monetary policy.
    It’s no surprise that every major central bank in the world has got a team looking at the possibilities of moving to a blockchain-­based crypto national currency.

    Never underestimate the power of the global money cabal, which is most powerful and self-interested lobbying group in the world. They will not walk away from their monopoly, nor will they give up on their prime directive to create a new economic world order, aka Technocracy.

  20. So many Bitcoin maximalists would have you believe that Bitcoin is simply untouchable.
    "But but but, it's anonymous". No it's pseudoanonymous, just like most of the other coins.
    “But but but, it's decentralized". No, a few Chinese mining pools control over 51% of the hash rate, and 4.11% of BTC holders hold 96.53% of BTC.
    "But but but the government can never take your bitcoins away". True, but they can make bitcoins illegal, destroying the current value into dust.
    "But but but Lightning Network will make Bitcoin competitive again". LN works with ALL coins, it won't give Bitcoin any special advantage. Regardless though, if an altcoin (say XRP?) already performs at far greater transaction rates than LN, and costs nearly nothing, then why would you choose a bicycle with wings, over a jet? Moreover, LN is having all kinds of problems with scaling.
    "But but but, it's a store of value!". Every coin, every single coin, is a store of value. That's what makes them coins. If they didn't store value, then what would they be good for?
    The point is, Bitcoin is running out of cards. It simply cannot compete with the next generation of tokens. It's basic human nature to stay with what is familiar, and so we witness the predictable manifestation of purists, maximalists, and anarchists, hanging on for dear life to their beloved 'precious'. Here's the kicker though, none of these Bitcoin evangelists have any power to stop what's coming.

    Galgitron

  21. Mathematical Proof That the Lightning Network Cannot Be a Decentralized Bitcoin Scaling Solution
    Have you heard of the Bitcoin Lightning Network? It is a proposal that claims that:
    “using a network of these micropayment channels, Bitcoin can scale to billions of transactions per day”
    What it doesn’t tell you is that this can only be accomplished by using large, centralized “banking” hubs.
    https://medium.com/@jonaldfyookball/mathematical-proof-that-the-lightning-network-cannot-be-a-decentralized-bitcoin-scaling-solution-1b8147650800

    While Bitcoin maximalists will point to overlay software such as Lightning, there have been numerous intractable problems with using secondary software to interact with POW networks. Using a secondary network to scale doesn’t solve the problem of using a completely inadequate base-layer technology.

  22. While Bitcoin maximalists will point to overlay software such as Lightning, there have been numerous intractable problems with using secondary software to interact with POW networks. Using a secondary network to scale doesn’t solve the problem of using a completely inadequate base-layer technology.

  23. hola buenas …. pues soy nuevo en esto y no me aclaro muy bien y queria investir y quiero hacer un GROUP del whatsap solo para los que tiene bitcoins o blockchain ….. whatsp num. group. +34602599019

  24. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XFMZs_7nOA
    I can imagine China (for example) taking over the system by forging the block's "proof of work" and the "hash" through the unbeatable processing capacity of a quantum supercomputer…

  25. Who here heard about Beowulf? I've just seen its information from facebook but I don't understand well! Beowulf blockchain must be new blockchain in the nearer time! Wanna hear your experience about https://beowulfchain.com/

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  28. Blockchain technology has enormous potential. Companies around the world are already developing many new and innovative use cases for blockchain. But I am afraid that lots of businesses are not ready for this "huge move". I have heard about the new blockchain project that aims to help companies with the adaptation of blockchain-based solutions in business. Maybe such a project like PrimeStone  is a chance for businesses not prepared for this change but still eager to implement blockchain technology.

  29. Hmm… https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/threelly-ai-for-youtube/dfohlnjmjiipcppekkbhbabjbnikkibo

  30. To expand the areas we are involved in, we need to rely on something reliable in the new area. But, it is time-consuming to evaluate human beings and trust them. There are many gaps: cultures, generations, conflict of interests etc. Therefore, more globalized the world is or more new innovations change our lives, people tend to need faster and more objective ways to rely on. I think this can be blockchains.

  31. Almost everyone with access to the internet has heard of Bitcoin, the first application of blockchain technology to gain worldwide recognition. Some have even mistaken the two for synonyms.

    While Bitcoin led the recognition of cryptocurrencies and even went on to be accepted by various businesses around the world, blockchain itself has benefits far beyond facilitating payments.

    Anyways, read the below. This might help.

    https://www.namasteui.com/5-ways-blockchain-technology-can-benefit-your-business/



    Regards,

    Sourav Basak

    Namaste UI

  32. This is the Birth of the mark of the beast Blockchain and A.I. will rule humanity. When this technology goes mainstream, because blockchain and A.I. will, it will be incorporated to our bodies and we will be at last, one with they system we created. We will serve it as a slave, as it knows everything and everyone. This dynamic duo, that we have created, will be the one world government, United by A.I. and Blockchain & consciousness.

  33. Let's try FIATO app – it's from Kryptono ! too convenient, I can transfer coin easily only by QR code but all is safe. In addition, I can convert to fiat, such an great app, here is link https://fiato.kryptono.exchange/

  34. Wikipedia is on it way to blockchain, work in progress within EOS blockchain. Everyone is so excited in blockchain but lack of knowledge that we are setting up a trap for us to sink into Metric type of Cyborg assimilate or die condition sooner.

  35. The free and fully democratic encyclopedia decides to build it's new system on the most centralized and shady cryptocurrency ever. EOS is pure oligarchy, Tron is the same; Ripple, Dash and VeChain are basically corporations that are making their profit by creating and licensing their blockchains…

  36. Well, good introducing to distributing leger tech. BUT Wikipedia should be implemented on a blockchain itself, so it would realy become decentralized.

  37. The problem with blockchain is, everything you do is stored on the blockchain. You can never hide anything on the block chain.

  38. "Blockchain is a place where all your transactions are visible to everybody." Sound like a smart phone, only worse.

  39. From what I understand, blockchain itself is not decentralized it's just a ledger, the network that it runs on can be centralized or decentralized. This is just from what I understand, so I could be wrong!

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  41. A bit of a rant… All these blockchain proponents make me think of a (dystopian) future where the only real commodity is building and selling data storage devices to store all the crypto blockchains of our primary economic activity of building and selling data storage devices…

    Have none of the blockchain proponents ever even considered the sustainability and the usage in perpetuity of this indefinitely growing burden of data? Database 'sharding' just divides the burden, but not the ever growing chain of blocks which MUST be stored within a single data storage pool/domain.

    IMHO, the concept of storing each transaction (millions per day; tens or even hundreds of thousands per minute) in this way seems rather short-sighted to me. It's the main thing keeping me away from the blockchain ideal – we can't store all of it forever. It's architecture is fundamentally flawed. Pump 'n' dump away, but I wouldn't rely on it.

    Rant over 🙂

  42. Blockchain is far too complicated and only benefits a few intelligent minors within the network. Designed for the rich to get richer by doing hardly any work.

  43. I hate Ali Baba. I bought a cell phone there. It was broken and they NEVER gave me my money back. It is a nest of thieves. They don't deserve even to be mentioned.

  44. Ai created Bitcoin according to many …blockchain feeds Ai its data, so your new master is AI…good luck! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I27jkERYO3M

  45. Bitcoin is undoubtedly the king of crypto’s. No one need doubt. Blockchain will transform the world. No one need doubt. Bitcoin has no ceiling. Forget the price gyrations, get-on board, hodl and forget. You’ll never regret it. No one need doubt.

  46. I love Bitcoin. I been involved since 2009. But I couldn't hear anything she said. That girl is smoking hot!

  47. I love the world of block-chain. However, who owns block-chain and is their a backdoor to this "autonomous" anonymous system. Just because banks are owned by the state or whoever, it does not mean Block-chain or Cryptocurrencies are self inventing and developing systems. Someone created them and is the "Central Bank" of them.

  48. Her name is Warburg.. What would she know about value. Warburgs are the 1% of the 1%.. Blockchain isn't an institution and it's our job to make sure it never becomes one

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